Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Decline Over a Third In President Sheinbaum, As per Government Figures

The mean number of daily killings monthly in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh administrative figures. But, security specialists have advised that murder figures could fail to point to better countrywide safety.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of close to 55 killings a day in last November versus nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the head of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we’ve had in these months is very significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, noting that the previous month the smallest amount of murders were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Fierce drug cartel rivalries, combined with the administration's highly military operations to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent times. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than the US. However, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an seemingly sharper reduction in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state said: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The key elements of the President's safety strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Increased cooperation between government departments.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

But, security experts cautioned that relying on murder statistics to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is particularly true given the increase in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be very good news if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly positive.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same period last year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer reliable for assessing the reality of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the desire to properly recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of everyday homicides was also an issue because it could obscure days when there were especially elevated levels of killings.

“Employing the daily average makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to government data. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly politically beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

However despite these actions, Mexico remains plagued by high violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-related violence. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

A short time later, many thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and across the country to show their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a way to construct a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst said.