Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
