‘The Situation is Dire’: Hostilities on Iran Constricts India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's households.

As military actions on Iran disrupt energy transports through the vital shipping lane, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the worst hit: the sharpest squeeze is in food service establishments.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most restaurants run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have ceased operations - some in Delhi, many in the south. People are switching to coal and wood and induction stoves to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, media reports say up to a fifth of eateries are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their fuel reserves have shrunk with scarce alternatives. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that closures are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers note a increase in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Government Stance

Yet, the authorities maintains there is adequate supply.

India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and spokespersons say supplies are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict affect energy markets.

About 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those imports pass through the critical waterway, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the war.

The relevant department says that it instructed refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being allocated for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"A degree of anxious stocking and stockpiling has been triggered by misinformation. The regular refill period for domestic LPG remains about 60 hours," says a ministry representative.

Growing Panic

Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of scooters outside a petrol pump. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.

According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be exaggerated.

India imports almost all of its oil. Around half of its oil purchases - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly offset by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on vessel tracking and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The primary concern is kitchen fuel, experts note.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through Hormuz.

Refineries can modify output to extract a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only raise domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through alternative sourcing. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the anxiety on the ground is not just scarcity but erratic supply chains - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.

An industry representative claims exploitative practices.

"Distributors are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be cushioned by global trade flows. But in restaurants across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.